Below-average snow and rain throughout the fall and winter have left moisture deficits throughout the United States.
According to the latest Drought Monitor, 55 percent of U.S. winter wheat areas are experiencing some level of drought conditions. That compared to 34 percent a year ago. Primary growing areas in Kansas have largely avoided the worst of the drought.
Winter wheat conditions showed further deterioration in March, according to the latest state crop conditions from the USDA. Forty-six percent of Kansas’ crop was in good/excellent condition as of March 22, down 6 percentage points from the week prior. Just 14 percent of Oklahoma’s crop was in good/excellent condition, down 4 points from the previous week and the lowest since 2018.
Texas’ crop conditions improved slightly, with 16 percent of the crop in good/excellent condition, up one point from the previous week.
Drier weather is expected for much of the Plains over the next week. There are chances for above-average precipitation next week, which would be a welcome sight for many areas.
“This could go a long way to pushing back some of the soil moisture issues that we’re dealing with right now,” Eric Snodgrass with Nutrien Ag Solutions said in a weekly weather interview.
While the forecasted storms could help alleviate long-term drought issues, the rains need to verify as the timeframe approaches.
“I’ve seen too many times the week 2 forecast be overaggressive on rainfall and under deliver,” he added.
Long-range models suggest persistent drought risks through the spring and into summer. Snodgrass said the position of El Niño this summer will be the primary factor of drought risks for the mid-section of the U.S.
Rainfall throughout the spring will be key for reviving soil moisture. Lackluster totals ahead of the spring could lead to additional weather premium building into the wheat market.
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