The USDA released its June WASDE report on Thursday, offering minimal balance sheet adjustments for the U.S. and global supply and demand outlooks.
The agency left the corn production forecast unchanged from the previous month. The USDA finally recognized a slower pace for the corn ethanol category. Usage had been running behind the pace needed to reach the 2025/26 target. The agency reduced the forecast by 25 million bushels to 5.575 billion.
That was offset by a 25 million bushel increase in the export forecast. Imports were raised by 3 million, which led to a net increase in the 2025/26 carryout of 3 million bushels, pinning ending stocks at 2.145 billion bushels. With no other adjustments to the new crop 2026/27 balance sheet, ending stocks were raised by 3 million bushels to 1.960 billion.
Soybean ending stocks for the 2025/26 marketing year were unchanged at 340 million bushels. However, soybean exports for the current season were reduced by another 20 million bushels. That was offset by an increase in the crush forecast. The 2026/27 carryout was left unchanged at 310 million bushels.
The agency did lower its 2025/26 ending stocks forecast for soybean oil due to an increase in soybean oil used for biofuels. That was partially offset by a reduction in the export forecast.
The agency lowered the 2026/27 wheat production forecast by 18 million bushels. That was due to a slight haircut in the forecast for hard red winter wheat production. With no other changes, the ending stocks forecast was reduced by 18 million bushels to 744 million, 20 percent below the previous season.
The agency raised its 2025/26 cotton export forecast to 12.2 million bales, up 200,000 bales from the May forecast. That reduced the ending stocks forecast to 4.2 million bales. With no other changes for the new crop balance sheet, 2026/27 ending stocks were reduced to 3.9 million bales. The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to fall for the first time in three years.
The 2025/26 rice export forecast was reduced by 0.50 million cwt. With no other changes for the old crop and new crop balance sheets, the 2026/27 carryout was raised by the amount to 42.8 million cwt. Global ending stocks for 2026/27 were raised slightly to 192.8 million tons.
The milk production forecasts were raised for 2026 and 2027. Output for 2026 was raised to 236.4 billion pounds, up 1 billion from the May forecast. Production for 2027 was also raised by 1 billion pounds to 237 billion. Both were raised due to higher cow inventories and increased milk per cow. Commercial exports for both years were raised on a fat basis.
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