China’s absence from the U.S. export sales sheet is weighing heavily on soybean demand as the country seeks to reduce its reliance on U.S. supplies.
As of the week ending July 24, new crop 2025/26 soybean export sales totaled 3.034 million metric tons or 111 million bushels. New crop sales are at the slowest pace for this time of the year since the 2005/06 season.
Last marketing year, China hadn’t begun purchasing new crop sales of soybeans until early July, much later than in previous years. However, with the clock ticking on the 2024/25 marketing year, China has yet to appear on the sales sheet.
Early buying last year helped keep 2024/25 exports to China above year-ago levels. However, no new crop sales from China this close to the upcoming season are unprecedented, at least for modern history.
Who is buying U.S. soybeans?
As of July 24, Mexico was the leading buyer of 2025/26 soybeans, accounting for 36 percent of total purchases. New crop sales to the country are about 44 percent ahead of last year, driven by a larger demand for crush products for animal feed and human consumption.
Egypt is the second-largest buyer, representing 13 percent of new crop sales. U.S. soybeans accounted for about 70 percent of the country’s soybean imports for the past five marketing years and should continue to lead in Egypt’s market.
Meanwhile, Japan is the No. 3 buyer for the upcoming season. Favorable crush margins are expected to drive soybean demand in Japan.
Unknown buyers currently account for about 30 percent of new crop sales. The USDA won’t attach those sales to a country until the company that sold the bushels defines the recipient. Federal regulations require exporters to reveal the country, though companies can report the destination as “unknown” if the destination has not been specified.
It’s possible China could be in the mix for some of those bushels. However, it’s not uncommon for unknown destinations to include traditional buyers, such as Japan, the Netherlands, and Egypt. Eventually, the sales will have a destination linked to them or will be canceled entirely.
Where will soybean demand come from?
Soybean export growth opportunities may reside with Egypt, Japan, Taiwan, and the Netherlands.
Soybean demand dynamics changed rapidly during the U.S.-China trade war during the first Trump administration and again during the renewable diesel boom during the Biden administration.
During the 2021/22 marketing year, exports accounted for about 48 percent of U.S. soybean demand. Exports are expected to represent 41 percent of the current 2024/25 year and will be less than 40 percent next season.
Domestic crushing demand has been picking up to help offset export declines. Total soybean use is forecast slightly higher in the 2025/26 season due to larger supplies. Domestic oilseed processors are optimistic about demand opportunities for soybean oil in U.S. biofuel production and soybean meal in global animal feed. With declining exports, crush-driven demand is set to take over during the 2025/26 season.
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