Sept. 1 Corn, Soybean Stocks Expected at Four-Year High

The USDA will release its Quarterly Grain Stocks report on Monday, offering a final glimpse of the 2023/24 corn and soybean balance sheets.

CORN

Ahead of the report, analysts expect corn stocks to remain high compared to previous years despite the likelihood of a good deal of farmer selling since the previous report.

A Bloomberg survey of analysts estimates expects the Sept. 1 corn stocks inventory to total 1.85 billion bushels, up 35 percent from a year ago. If realized, that will still be the highest inventory for the quarter since the 2019/20 season. 

Farmers held a historically high percentage of on-farm stocks in the June report (highest since 2005) despite good export and ethanol demand, as well as active cattle feeding. On-farm stocks in June were also the highest since 2018/19.

Iowa and Illinois farmers were the main culprits for larger stocks, accounting for a third of total on-farm inventories. 

SOYBEANS

Soybean inventories are expected to be 31 percent higher year-over-year at 347 million bushels. That would be the highest since 2019/20. 

Like corn, soybean farmers held a historically large percentage of U.S. soybean supplies in previous quarters, which is expected to continue for this report.

Total soybean demand weakened in the 2023/24 marketing year, particularly due to lower exports. Soybean crush is expected at a record, though prices have worked lower as processing has not been enough to counter poor shipments. 

WHEAT

Monday’s report will offer the first look into first-quarter demand for wheat since the marketing year began on June 1. Last quarter’s report showed that wheat supplies ended the season at the highest since 2020/21. 

Sept. 1 inventories are expected to be 13 percent higher than a year ago at 1.992 billion bushels. With expectations of better production, that would push inventories to the highest since 2020/21 versus being mostly flat over the past couple of years. 

The USDA’s September WASDE projected wheat export demand up 17 percent from 2023/24. It would be interesting to see if the USDA’s estimate comes in less than expected due to the current pace of exports. 

The USDA will also release its annual small grains report with the 2024 wheat production estimates. All wheat production is expected to be 1.983 billion bushels. All winter wheat is expected to total 1.360 billion bushels.