Slow Start for New Crop Sales Raises Red Flags

U.S. exports of corn, soybeans, and wheat have outpaced year-ago levels for much of the current marketing year. However, new crop sales are underperforming at this point in the season. For the 2024/25 marketing year, U.S. corn exports are projected to be the second-highest on record, behind only the 2020/21 season, when China accounted for about 31 percent of total exports.

According to the latest USDA Weekly Export Sales report, new crop corn sales stand at 1.98 million metric tons (MMT). While that’s an improvement over the same week last year, total commitments are the second-lowest since 2012 and about 450,000 metric tons (MT), or 19 percent, below the five-year average. Mexico is leading the way in new crop purchases, followed by Japan and Honduras.

New crop soybean sales are struggling even more. As of April 10, outstanding sales totaled just 458,500 MT - down 3.5 MMT, or 88 percent, from the five-year average. This marks the lowest level for this time of year in 18 years. 

Most of these sales are attributed to unknown destinations, with no confirmed volumes headed to China. While some of those unknown sales may eventually be revealed as Chinese, ongoing trade tensions and reduced buying from China make that unlikely. Other countries, such as Mexico, Japan, and the Netherlands, have also been known to purchase under the "unknown" designation. The outlook for soybeans isn’t promising, especially in the face of Brazil’s large crop harvested this spring. There’s still a chance for new crop corn and soybean sales to catch up, as export activity often slows ahead of summer. 

Wheat is performing relatively better than corn and soybeans. As of April 10, new crop wheat sales totaled 1.45 MMT - only 305,000 MT, or 17 percent, below the five-year average. Mexico is the top buyer, followed by Guatemala, Japan, and the Philippines.

Wheat has the shortest new crop sales window, with its peak season beginning in March. Sales dipped sharply in late March and early April. Looking ahead to 2025/26, wheat sales are currently the second-lowest since 2018. Overall, wheat export demand has improved over the past year, rebounding from the 2022/23 season’s 50-year low.