Rising fertilizer costs resulting from the conflict in the Middle East have raised concerns over cropping intentions for the 2026 growing season. To better understand how disruptions could be impacting producers, we conducted a fertilizer survey among Trader PhD listeners. More than 800 producers have responded to the survey, which was conducted April 20 through April 23.
About 76.5% of respondents said they had pre-booked their fertilizer needs for the 2026 growing season, leaving nearly a quarter of respondents saying they hadn’t secured supplies for this year. In the Midwest, 83% of farmers had pre-booked their fertilizer, while only 68 percent of respondents in the South had secured supplies ahead of the planting season.
A large share of respondents said they bought fertilizer early, booked it months ahead, or already applied it last fall so 2026 plans would not change. Some respondents noted that they plan to shift acres from corn to soybeans or other crops that require less nitrogen.
Additionally, 79% of respondents say this will not change their cropping intentions for 2026 based on higher fertilizer costs. That leaves about 20% saying that they would change some intentions.
About 37% of survey respondents said they plan to reduce fertilizer application rates this season.
Farmers described cutting back on inputs to protect cash flow, especially where corn or wheat prices do not justify full fertility. Some said they are only fertilizing the best ground, only applying on high-potential acres, or using soil tests and yield maps to target nutrients more precisely.
A repeated message is that 2026 is mostly already locked in, but 2027 could see bigger changes if high fertilizer prices continue.
--
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.