U.S. crop farmers are gearing up for the spring planting season, bringing 2026 acreage expectations into the spotlight. The recent rally in the soybean market in February could help drive more acres to soybeans, but normal crop rotation will likely remain the primary driver. That would bring some acres out of corn after the USDA estimated plantings at a lofty 98.8 million acres in the 2025 growing season.
Trader PhD released its February 2026 acreage survey results with the expectation of corn acres normalizing to some extent this season. Sixty-two percent of respondents said their planting decisions were based on their normal crop rotation. Crop prices were the No. 2 reason (18 percent) for planting decisions.
CORN
Corn acreage is falling 1.4 percent year-over-year to 97.3 million acres. While the overall acreage is lower, plantings are expected to remain heavy compared to previous years.
Midwestern states largely saw a modest shift from corn acreage to soybeans, with the exception of Illinois. Better indemnity payments and yield potential were among the reasons for growing more corn among respondents who didn’t indicate normal crop rotation as the primary reason.
The January Quarterly Grain Stocks report showed farmers still have plenty of corn stored following last year’s harvest. But record corn exports and use for ethanol paint a better outlook for the demand picture compared to other crops.
SOYBEANS
U.S. soybean plantings are seen rising 3.5 percent to just 84.2 million acres in 2026, pulling acres from other crops rather than just corn. Soybean prices have performed substantially better over the past few months on expectations of better demand from China since the U.S. and China entered a trade truce in late October.
The Midwest is expected to drive higher soybean acreage, though Mississippi also could see a larger shift from corn to soybeans. The outlier was Kansas, which saw a shift from soybeans and wheat acreage to corn.
Basis levels remain stronger in the Eastern Ag Belt and along the Mississippi River due to lower exports to China.
WHEAT
All wheat acreage is seen falling 7.3 percent to 42.2 million acres, the lowest on record for data going back to 1919. U.S. wheat acreage has been trending lower over the past decade. U.S. wheat has struggled to compete in the export market among other global competitors, easily leading to higher stocks.
The survey showed a sharp reduction in plantings in winter wheat areas, which counters the higher estimate from the USDA’s Winter Wheat Plantings report in January. Spring wheat plantings in North Dakota were seen 18 percent lower than last year. Poor crop prices were likely a driver. Among respondents who said they decreased their wheat acreage significantly, crop prices were the primary reason for this year’s planting decisions.
Cotton was omitted from the survey due to minimal responses in past surveys that led to inconclusive results. Trader PhD will conduct another producer survey ahead of the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report at the end of March.
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