Traders Expect Higher Corn Demand Forecast in March WASDE

Grain markets have attempted to digest a fair share of noise over the past week or so. March is already a busy enough month without tariff headlines. 

The USDA will release its March WASDE report on Tuesday, offering another look at the 2024/25 balance sheets. The focus continues to be on U.S. demand and South American supplies this month, as the USDA won’t release the more official new crop 2025/26 tables until May.

CORN

Ahead of the report, a Bloomberg survey of analyst estimates expects the 2024/25 corn carryout to decline by 23 million bushels to 1.518 billion. There is high anticipation that the USDA will raise the corn export forecast by at least 25 million bushels. 

It wouldn’t be an outlandish adjustment, considering the current export pace is running six percentage points ahead of the five-year average. The current pace hasn’t slowed since the agency left the corn balance sheet unchanged last month. 

There is also anticipation that corn ethanol demand could increase. It’s possible the USDA could raise the forecast, but it seems less likely since production, despite sitting at seasonal highs, might barely meet or come below the current forecast.

Our calculations show ethanol processors have only crushed about 50 percent of the USDA’s target forecast with a little less than half of the marketing year left.

Global corn endings stocks are expected to fall to 289.9 million metric tons (MMT), down 0.4 MMT from the February forecast.

SOYBEANS

The soybean balance sheet is expected to remain unchanged this month, with the carryout projected at 380 million bushels, according to the Bloomberg survey. 

The most obvious possible change would be the soybean oil balance sheet due to exports. Current commitments are 53 percent ahead of the current USDA target. Further upward revisions likely mean a downward revision in domestic biofuel usage, which wouldn’t be surprising after biomass diesel plummeted in January.

World endings stocks are projected to increase by 0.2 MMT to 124.6 MMT.

WHEAT

A slight change is expected for the U.S. wheat balance sheet, with the carryout expected to increase by 5 million bushels to 799 million. 

The current wheat export pace has been trailing behind the five-year average despite current shipments sitting ahead of the average. 

That could cause the agency to lower its forecast, though the potential of a lower dollar increasing demand could help leave the estimate unchanged at 850 million bushels. 

World endings stocks are projected to increase slightly to 257.7 MMT.

SOUTH AMERICA

South American crop forecasts could see little change, though the largest adjustment could come for Argentine corn. 

The USDA is expected to lower the forecast by 0.7 million metric tons (MMT) to 49.3 MMT. The country’s soybean output is expected to remain virtually unchanged at 49 MMT.

Brazil’s corn production forecast could remain unchanged at 126 MMT, while the soybean estimate is expected to rise by 0.5 MMT to 169.5 MMT.