U.S. wheat exports for the 2026/27 season are off to a weaker start, reinforcing demand risks for the staple commodity. Through July 23, total wheat exports and commitments sat at 7.06 million metric tons (MMT), or approximately 260 million bushels. Commitments are running about 24 percent below last season. Meanwhile, actual shipments are running about 23 percent below a year ago at 2.54 MMT.
Total commitments are currently at 33 percent of the USDA’s 2026/27 wheat export projection. That compares to 41 percent a year ago and the five-year average of 39 percent. Sales have struggled to keep up with their seasonal pace.
The slower pace bears watching, considering that the USDA projects just a small decline in exports from the 2025/26 marketing year. That means sales need to pick up ahead of this fall’s prime sales window. While we’re only two weeks into the marketing year, continued sluggish demand could lead to the USDA reducing its export forecast.
Lower exports would increase ending stocks unless offset by stronger domestic use, adding additional pressure to wheat prices.
Weaker sales diverge from strong 2025/26 season
The U.S. wrapped up the wheat export campaign for the 2025/26 marketing year on a strong note, with shipments reaching a five-year high. U.S. wheat exports enjoyed a season of higher supplies and better competition in the global marketplace. Larger HRW wheat production and competitive prices allowed U.S. wheat to regain market share in several destinations.
The rise was mainly due to increased purchases from Mexico (+4 percent); the Philippines (+3 percent); Indonesia (+31 percent); and Nigeria (+94 percent). Additionally, U.S. wheat exports benefited from a diverse list of buyers.
Some of that momentum continued into the current season but quickly trailed off, as U.S. supplies became more expensive. U.S. FOB prices remain the highest among global competitors. Additionally, U.S. all-wheat production is projected to drop to the smallest crop in 56 years, limiting available supplies, particularly in HRW wheat country.
Black Sea supply risks could support U.S. demand
Continued escalations between Russia and Ukraine may improve export opportunities for U.S. wheat. So far, Russian exports have remained relatively uninterrupted despite the renewed tensions, limiting the immediate impact on global wheat trade. However, any sustained disruption could quickly redirect demand toward competing exporters, including the United States.
While export demand has started slowly, the marketing year is still in its early stages. The coming months will be critical as Northern Hemisphere harvest pressure eases and importers begin larger seasonal purchases. Whether U.S. wheat can regain competitiveness against Black Sea supplies will likely determine if USDA's export forecast remains achievable.
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