The USDA released its March WASDE report on Tuesday, offering a few balance sheet adjustments for the U.S. and global supply and demand outlooks.
The U.S. corn balance sheet was left unchanged for the month. The 2025/26 carryout is forecast at 2.127 billion pounds. Future WASDE reports may highlight demand adjustments, as exports are still running ahead of the current forecast and ethanol use is running slightly behind. Global corn ending stocks were raised to 292.8 MMT, up 3.8 MMT, due to higher stocks in Brazil, Ukraine, and India.
U.S. soybean ending stocks were left unchanged from the previous month at 350 million bushels. Imports were raised by 5 million bushels due to higher imports observed on the East Coast. That was offset by a 5 million-bushel increase in crush demand. Soybean oil used for biofuel production was lowered by 800 million pounds but was mostly offset by a 750 million pound increase in food, feed, and other use. Global ending stocks were reduced by 0.2 MMT due to lower supplies for India and Ukraine.
The U.S. wheat balance sheet was left unchanged for the month, with 2025/26 ending stocks forecast at 931 million bushels. The carryout is forecast to be 9 percent higher than the previous season. Global wheat ending stocks were reduced by 0.6 MMT to 277 million but remained at a five-year high. Argentina’s exports were raised by 1.5 MMT to a record 19.5 million, as the country’s wheat prices remain the lowest among major exporters.
The U.S. cotton balance sheet was unchanged in its March WASDE report on Tuesday. The 2025/26 carryout is forecast at 4.4 million bales. The stocks-to-use ratio is currently at 32 percent, the highest since the 2019/20 marketing year. The agency raised global ending stocks to 76.4 million bales, up 1.3 million from the previous forecast. India and Brazil accounted for much of the increase.
The USDA raised its 2025 milk production estimate to 231.7 billion pounds, up 0.2 billion from the February forecast. The increase was due to revised data in the latest Milk Production report, which showed higher output for December. Additionally, milk supply and use were increased for 2025 to reflect revised cold storage data and trade data through December. The milk production forecast for 2026 was raised to 234.7 billion pounds, also up 0.2 billion from February.
The USDA lowered its rice import forecast by 2 million cwt, though a reduction in the export forecast offset the increase. The 2025/26 ending stocks forecast was left unchanged at 50.3 million cwt. Projected world ending stocks were raised by 0.7 million tons to 191.5 million.
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