The USDA will release its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Friday, offering another looking into the 2025 growing season. Following last month’s snafu of the USDA’s corn production estimate coming in well above market expectations, eyes will remain on yield and acreage.
After relying heavily on farmer surveys and satellite imagery for last month’s report, the September WASDE will be a more “boots on the ground” look at U.S. crops.
CORN
Ahead of the report, a Bloomberg survey of analysts’ estimates expects yields to fall to 186 bushels per acre (bpa), from last month’s record forecast of 188.8 bpa. Production is expected to decline 240 million bushels from the previous month to 16.5 billion, still a record.
The USDA’s Crop Progress report on Monday showed that four percent of the U.S. corn crop was harvested as of Sept. 7, particularly in the South. With harvest underway, more is becoming known about how the crop is actually shaping up.
The 2025/26 corn carryout is expected to remain above 2 billion bushels despite an expected decrease in production.
The USDA is currently forecasting record corn demand in all categories. If the agency comes down on production, it wouldn’t be surprising to see lower demand. The feed and residual usage may be the first category to see a downward adjustment due to historically low cattle numbers.
SOYBEANS
Soybean yields are expected to come down slightly in this month’s report to 53.2 bpa, down from the previous record forecast of 53.6 bpa. August was quite dry, particularly in the Eastern Ag Belt, as crops moved through final development stages.
Many areas have gone about a month without any rainfall, which likely impacted yield potential since July’s heavy rainfall. Total production is expected to decline by about 30 million bushels to 4.26 billion.
On the demand side, it’s likely the USDA could lower the 2025/26 export forecast. China currently has zero bushels of soybeans from the U.S. on the books. Additionally, the country was back to importing record volumes of soybeans in August without the help of U.S. shipments.
Outstanding sales are running at the slowest pace since the 2019/20 season, though sales outside of China are strong. The 2025/26 soybean carryout is expected to be slightly lower than last month at 287 million bushels.
WHEAT
The September WASDE is typically a non-event for the wheat market, with adjustments only made once during the month out of the last five years. The USDA will likely leave production unchanged. Ending stocks are expected to get a slight reduction of 6 million bushels to 863 million.
Exports have been moving along rapidly this season, with exports running at 27 percent of the USDA’s current target, compared to the five-year average of 25 percent. The agency may hold off on raising its export forecast due to strong global competition.