The USDA will release the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Friday after last month’s hiatus with the government shutdown. The USDA announced on Oct. 30 that it will release the crop report regardless of the government shutdown.
CORN
To much anticipation, the USDA is expected to lower corn yields compared to the September estimate. A Bloomberg survey of analyst estimates predicts the average national yield to fall to 184 bushels per acre (bpa), compared to the previous estimate of 186.7 bpa. Production is expected to decline to 16.57 billion bushels. If realized, that would still be about 1.5 billion higher than the previous record set in 2021 due to large acreage.
Corn ending stocks for the 2025/26 season are expected to increase by 58 million bushels to 2.168 billion despite the lower production estimate. The USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report, which was released on Sept. 30, will likely play a role after the USDA increased the 2024/25 carryout by about 200 million bushels from the September WASDE report.
The large upward revisions suggest that demand last season was lower than expected despite strong exports and corn for ethanol. Global corn ending stocks for 2025/26 are expected to be raised to 283.2 million metric tons (MMT), up 1.8 MMT from the previous estimate.
SOYBEANS
Like corn, the average soybean yield estimate is expected to be lower. The average analyst guess is predicted at 53.1 bpa, compared to the previous September estimate of 53.5 bpa.
Ending stocks are expected to be raised slightly to 306 million bushels. It is unclear whether the USDA will recognize China’s alleged promise to purchase 12 MMT (441 million bushels) of soybeans through the rest of the year. In the past, the USDA only acknowledged official policies and trade deals.
Global ending stocks are expected to be slightly higher at 124.4 MMT. That estimate could increase by a larger amount if the agency raises South American production higher than the current 175 MMT.
WHEAT
Wheat ending stocks are expected to be raised by 25 million bushels from the previous report to 869 million. If realized, that would be the highest carryout since the 2019/20 season.
Wheat export demand has been strong since the start of the season. Weekly export inspections data show shipments are running 19 percent ahead of last year and at the fastest pace since the 2016/17 season. The USDA currently forecasts wheat exports to be the highest since the 2020/21 marketing year. Despite strong shipments, global wheat demand has been declining, while competition among major importers has been higher.
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