April WASDE brings minimal changes for commodities

The USDA released its April WASDE report on Thursday, offering minimal balance sheet adjustments for the U.S. and global supply and demand outlooks. 

The U.S. corn ending stocks forecast for 2025/26 was left unchanged from March at 2.127 billion bushels. Feed and residual usage was unchanged at 6.2 billion bushels, reflecting disappearance during the December through February quarter as indicated in the quarterly grain stocks report. World corn ending stocks were raised to 294.8 MMT, up 2.1 MMT from March, reflecting increases for India, South Africa, and Brazil.

The USDA left the 2025/26 soybean ending stocks unchanged from March at 350 million bushels. The agency reduced the export forecast by 35 million bushels to 1.54 billion. The reduction was offset by a 35-million-bushel increase in the crush forecast. Total commitments are running at their slowest pace since the first trade war with China in the 2019/20 season.  World soybean ending stocks were lowered to 124.8 MMT, down 0.5 MMT due to lower stocks for Argentina, Brazil, and Egypt.

The USDA raised its U.S. wheat ending stocks for the current season to 938 million bushels, up 7 million from March. Imports were raised by 5 million bushels. Domestic usage was lowered by 2 million bushels. The agency left exports unchanged at 900 million bushels. World wheat ending stocks were raised to 283.1 MMT, up 6.2 MMT from March and are 24 percent higher than a year ago. 

The USDA’s April WASDE report left the U.S cotton balance sheet unchanged this month. Global ending stocks were raised to 77 million bales, up 650,000 bales from the March report. World cotton production was raised for China, India, and Pakistan, which was partially offset by higher consumption by China and India. 

The USDA raised its 2026 milk production forecast to 235.3 billion pounds, up 0.6 billion from March. The increase was due to increased cow inventories that more than offset slower growth in milk per cow. Dairy exports were raised for 2026 due to higher projected shipments of cheese, butter, and dry whole milk.

The USDA lowered its U.S. rice export forecast by 3 million cwt from March due to a continued slow sales and shipments pace. Ending stocks for 2025/26 were increased by 5 million cwt to 55.3 million, the highest since the 1985/86 season. Projected world ending stocks were raised by 0.8 million cwt to 192.3 million.

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