Corn Crush Demand Challenged by Ethanol Efficiencies

U.S. corn crushed for ethanol production totaled 426 million bushels in April, up slightly from last year, according to the USDA’s Grain Crushings and Co-Products report released Monday afternoon. 

Year-to-date crush totaled 3.602 billion bushels for the 2024/25 marketing year, down 0.3 percent from the previous season. That is 65.5 percent of the USDA’s 2024/25 target of 5.5 billion bushels. 

According to monthly EIA data, ethanol production is up about 1.5 percent from the previous season despite lower crush. The agency only released data through March 2025, so April’s volumes are assumed through calculations using weekly data. 

The discrepancy between crush rates and ethanol production can be explained by improved efficiency over the past few years. During the previous marketing year, the conversion rate for the gallons produced per bushel of corn averaged 2.92 gallons between September 2023 and April 2024. During that same period for the previous marketing year, the rate averaged 2.99 gallons. 

Earlier this spring, many analysts argued that the USDA needs to raise corn crush demand in its WASDE report to account for record ethanol production levels. However, the steady pace of crush resulting from higher conversion rates makes this hypothesis unlikely. 

We’ve made similar arguments in previous months that the USDA does not need to raise crush demand forecasts due to the relative pace holding steady.