Understanding USDA Export Reports

If you're trying to track U.S. grain exports, you’ve probably heard of two key USDA reports: the Grain Export Inspections Report and the Weekly Export Sales Report. Both are valuable tools that provide insights into U.S. export activity, but they serve different purposes. Here’s a quick guide to help you make sense of them:

1. Grain Export Inspections Report

This report measures the actual physical shipments of grains like corn, soybeans, and wheat. It’s based on inspections conducted at U.S. ports by the USDA’s Federal Grain Inspections Service before the grain leaves the country. Under the U.S. Grains Standards Act, all grains and oilseeds grown in the U.S. must be inspected and weighed for quality before being shipped.

The report is released every Monday at 10:00 am Central time unless a federally-recognized holiday lands on that day (i.e., Martin Luther King Jr. Day). The report covers grains that were inspected the previous week. The USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report covers U.S. agricultural export data in more detail.

• What it tells you: The real-time volume of grain shipped overseas during the week.
• Why it matters: It’s the most accurate indicator of actual shipments and helps track how U.S. exports are progressing. However, data from the U.S. Census Bureau is considered the “gold standard” for exports. The report is released every month with delayed data from two months prior (October export data will not be released until December).

2. Weekly Export Sales Report

This report focuses on sales contracts between U.S. exporters and foreign buyers. It includes two key numbers: sales and exports. The sales are reported and represented as the total amount of grain sold for future shipment. Exports are the amount of grain that was shipped during the week. This data is similar to the Grain Export Inspections Report, but the shipment data is sourced from exporters instead of federal inspectors. U.S. exporters are required to report information to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service. Required data includes the volume of sales, exports, commodity type and class, marketing year of shipment, and the destination.

Data within this report is heavily analyzed by economists, analysts, and traders to gauge the pace of demand for U.S. agricultural commodities. This report also includes other commodities beyond grains, such as cotton, beef, pork, cattle hides, and rice.

The USDA’s weekly export sales data is a snapshot of a total commodity sold, allowing anyone to track or analyze potential future activity. Each week, the USDA reports sales for the current marketing year and the next marketing year between the Friday and Thursday of the previous week. Countries don’t typically buy supplies beyond the next marketing year unless they expect a supply shortage as the end of the current marketing year approaches.

It is important to note that not all sales will turn into shipments. Countries can cancel sales from the U.S., which is typically done by paying a fee to merchandisers. Even though a country cancels a sale from the U.S., they may just be switching the country of origin. For example, if China had purchased soybeans from Bunge for U.S. origination, it could “cancel” that sale and switch the origin to Brazil and still buy the soybeans from Bunge. 

This report is released on a weekly basis at 7:30 am Central time on Thursday unless the agency announces otherwise.

• What it tells you: Future demand (new sales) and progress on existing export commitments (shipments).
• Why it matters: It shows the health of international demand for U.S. grains and can help predict future shipment activity. Analysts and traders use the report to track the current shipment pace of a commodity relative to the USDA’s monthly forecasts in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report.

Key Differences:

While the reports overlap in some areas (both show weekly shipments), Export Inspections is the go-to for understanding what’s physically moving out of the country. The Export Sales Report is more about forecasting demand based on contracts, which can be canceled or delayed.

Summary:

The Export Inspections Report and the Export Sales Report are used to see how U.S. exports are keeping up with global demand. The data is released publicly to provide market transparency for anyone who wishes to access the reports. Released data can help you gain an understanding of where future export demand is heading and how it might impact prices. Both reports provide valuable insights into the grain market, helping you make informed decisions based on the international demand for your commodity.

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