US Wheat Exports Fight For Relevancy

The saying, “Low prices cure low prices,” could become true for the U.S. wheat market as lower futures and a relatively lower dollar increase global competition. 

1. Rebounding US exports

As of the week ending July 24, year-to-date exports for the 2025/26 marketing year that began on June 1 reached 3.31 million metric tons (90 million bushels), according to weekly USDA inspection data. Shipments were nearly six percent ahead of volumes the same week last year after a slow start to the season. 

Total wheat exports and sales commitments are at the fastest pace since the 2020/21 marketing year. Driving the increase are higher shipments of HRW wheat and SRW wheat, which are up 114 percent and 16 percent year-over-year, respectively. 

Driving the growth is demand from Mexico, though additional growth from Indonesia, South Africa, and Nigeria has also driven HRW wheat exports higher. Mexico is also the leading buyer of SRW wheat exports. Total U.S. wheat exports are forecast to rise for a second consecutive year after falling to a fresh 52-year low during the 2023/24 season. 

2. Lower prices spurring demand

Since January 2023, HRW wheat prices have fallen by more than 40 percent, and SRW wheat prices have fallen by 34 percent. Both have traded more in line with their global counterparts, particularly prices in the European Union and the Black Sea. Meanwhile, Australia and Canada are higher-priced suppliers. 

During the same period, the U.S. dollar had fallen about eight percent. Countries such as Morocco have expressed interest in increasing U.S. wheat purchases, largely due to lower prices and better currency rates. 

3. Strong global competition

Competition with other major exporters is not going away. The U.S. was the No. 5 wheat exporter last season, compared to being the top supplier about a decade ago. Better price differentials and declining wheat production will likely prevent the U.S. from regaining its past global export dominance. 

The U.S. accounted for about 11 percent of global wheat exports, a far cry from over 20 percent seen about 20 years ago. Russia’s growing percentage of global wheat exports will likely keep competition high among key suppliers. Today, Russia supplies more than 20 percent of the global wheat trade. 

What remains to be seen is the impact President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs may have on U.S. exports.

Want to receive more commodity-related information? Sign up for a free trial to stay up-to-date on the latest market trends. 

--

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.