What Is Going On With US Beef, Pork Trade?

This week, we received the USDA’s latest monthly export and import data for October, with beef trends still showing lower exports and higher imports.

The U.S. exported 105,269 metric tons (MT) of beef in October, up nearly one percent from October 2023. Year-to-date exports remained two percent below last year at 1.066 million metric tons. Japan’s purchases of U.S. beef represented 19 percent of U.S. exports for the first 10 months, which is about unchanged from last year. 

A larger spotlight is on Mexico this year as the No. 2 importer, with purchases rising 13 percent from last year and accounting for 193,006 MT (18 percent) of this year’s total.

While the U.S. exports less beef, countries are paying more for it. Beef export value is up 4 percent through October at $8.68 billion. Choice boxed beef values, which implies wholesale prices, averaged $3.07 per pound, compared to $3 a year earlier.

Tightening cattle supplies have led to a surge in beef imports this year. Trade data on Friday showed that the U.S. imported 414 million pounds of beef in October, a record volume for the month.

Year-to-date imports are up 22.4 percent at 3.83 billion pounds. With only 10 months of data, shipments are at a record this year. While a stronger U.S. dollar is negative for exports, the higher value led to more buying power for importers.

Australia was the No. 1 source of beef between January and October, followed by Canada and Brazil. The U.S. began importing beef from Paraguay this year, with shipments reaching 36 million pounds since the U.S. lifted its import ban on the country. Stronger beef production in Argentina also pushed more supplies to the U.S.

U.S. pork exports totaled 252,411 MT, up nearly three percent from the same month last year. Stronger shipments to China led the increase, followed by larger volumes to the Dominican Republic and Australia.

Year-to-date shipments are up five percent for the first 10 months at 2.49 MMT. Export value during the period is up six percent at $7 billion.

Strong shipments to Mexico last year carried over into 2024, benefiting export growth. Growth in shipments to South Korea and Central America was also a factor. 

U.S. trade has become a hot topic since President-elect Donald Trump announced a 25 percent tariff on imported goods from Mexico and Canada. Trump hopes to use his rhetoric as leverage to control migration and fentanyl issues at U.S. borders. The potential negative impacts on agriculture have yet to be seen, given that inauguration day is more than a month away.

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