Grains focused on first USDA reports for 2025

The USDA will issue a large data dump on Friday, releasing its first supply and demand data reports for 2025. Eyes will be focused on corn and soybean production numbers for the January WASDE report as the USDA attempts to put on a bow on the 2024 growing season. The Quarterly Grains Stocks report will help shine a light on demand for U.S. grains from September and November.

CORN

A Bloomberg survey of analyst estimates expects the agency to lower corn yields and harvested acres slightly from the December report. Final corn production is expected to be 15.1 billion bushels, the fourth largest crop on record.

Minor adjustments are expected for the 2024/25 carryout estimates after the USDA raised corn demand by 200 million bushels last month. Given December's hefty increase for exports and ethanol, it’s hard to believe that the agency will further raise demand this month. Possible adjustments could come for residual usage if feed demand was higher than expected. Corn ending stocks are expected to be 64 million lower than the December forecast at 1.674 billion bushels. 

World corn ending stocks are expected to be 1.2 million metric tons (MMT) lower than the December forecast at 295.2 MMT. If realized, that would be the lowest carryout since 2015 as global demand estimates increase, particularly in the U.S.

Ahead of the USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report, traders expect corn stocks as of Dec.1 to be 6 million bushels lower than a year ago at 12.2 billion. 

SOYBEANS

Soybean yields are expected to receive a slightly lower adjustment, bringing total production to 4.45 billion bushels. In November, the USDA reduced yields by a sizeable amount, bringing production down from their record projection. Analysts expect some follow-through cuts for Friday’s report.

The USDA may choose to leave the demand portion of the balance sheet unchanged for this month. Export sales and shipments have softened recently but have aligned with seasonal trends. There is concern that foreign buyers could cancel sales as the U.S. dollar continues to trade near a two-year high, and Brazil and Argentina production estimates remain at a record of 210 MMT. That said, soybean ending stocks are predicted to be 12 million bushels lower at 458 million, according to the Bloomberg Survey. World soybean ending stocks are expected to be slightly higher at a record 132.1 MMT.

For the quarterly stocks report, soybean inventories on and off farms as of Dec. 1 are expected to be 211 million bushels higher at 3.21 billion. 

WHEAT

The U.S. wheat balance sheet is expected to receive slight adjustments on Friday. Traders predict wheat ending stocks to be raised by 7 million bushels from December to 802 million bushels. 

Last month, the agency raised its wheat import forecast, as well as its export forecast. Exports are operating at an adequate pace for the USDA’s current projection, with shipments two percentage points ahead of last year’s pace. The strength of the U.S. dollar might encourage more wheat imports as well. Not much is expected for the global balance sheet, with world wheat ending stocks expected to be unchanged at 257.9 MMT.

Wheat stocks as of Dec. 1 are expected to be 146 million bushels higher than a year ago at 1.57 billion bushels.

The USDA will also release its annual Winter Wheat Seedings report, with little change expected for the 2025 growing season.

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