August 2025 WASDE Recap

The 2025 August WASDE results are in, and Trader PhD's major crops all have new stats to report.

The USDA raised its 2025 corn yield and acreage forecasts, bringing 2025/26 production higher than market expectations at a record 16.7 billion bushels.  Acreage increased by 2.1 million to 97.3 million while yields came in well above market expectations at 188.8 bushels per acre. Exports were increased by 200 million, while corn used for ethanol jumped 100 million bushels higher. The 2025/26 carryout was raised by 457 million bushels to 2.117 billion, bringing the stocks-to-use ratio to 13.3 percent, the highest since the 2019/20 season. December corn futures reacted negatively to the more burdensome U.S. and global balance sheets, continuing the trend from late July.

The 2025/26 soybean carryout was lower than expected following a reduction in soybean acres and higher old crop demand. Exports and crushings for 2024/25 were raised by 10 million bushels each to 1.875 billion and 2.43 billion, respectively, while exports for 2025/26 decreased by 40 million bushels and crush remained unchanged. 

Forecasted wheat production decreased by 2 million bushels to 1.927 billion bushels, due to lower harvest acreage offsetting slightly higher yields. Exports for 2025/26 were raised by 25 million bushels to 875 million due to the strong early pace of sales and shipments. These increased wheat exports come on the heels of rebounding growth from exports to Mexico, Indonesia, South Africa and Nigeria. The 2025/26 carryout was reduced by 21 million bushels to 869 million. 

The USDA’s August WASDE report highlighted a tighter U.S. and global cotton balance sheet, driven by lower U.S. production. Cotton exports for 2025/26 were lowered by 500,000 bales due to lower supplies. The carryout was reduced to 3.6 million bales, down 1 million from July. The U.S. stocks-to-use ratio tightened up to 26.3 percent, down from the 2024/25 ratio of 29.4 percent. 

Rice prices saw volatility following the report's publication. The USDA trimmed the 2025/26 rice carryout slightly due to stronger exports and domestic use, while boosting production estimates from 205 million to 208.5 million hundredweight thanks to increased acreage despite lower yields. The USDA cited strong export sales to Japan as a reason for higher shipment expectations. 

Dairy prices stayed in an uptrend this week after rebounding from July lows, supported by strong exports and rising demand from China. The USDA raised its 2025 and 2026 milk production forecasts on higher cow inventories and productivity, while boosting export expectations for butter, cheese, and milk powders.

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