Higher US Corn Acres Expected In 2025, Lower Soy

Chatter continued this week about the U.S. crop acreage situation ahead of the USDA’s annual Ag Outlook Forum. 

There continues to be much uncertainty around corn and soybeans, though one thing is clear among trade guesses - farmers will plant more corn and less soybeans. That’s been the consensus for a while, given the soybean-corn ratio is sitting at the lowest level in two years. 

The ratio is only one data point that helps dictate acreage. It’s currently signaling that the market wants more corn or less soybeans, hence the current trade guesses before the USDA releases its latest outlook.

Ahead of the forum, the average trade guess predicts corn acres to rise by 3 million from last year to 93.5 million. Meanwhile, soybean acres are expected to be 2.7 million acres lower at 84.4 million. 

The additional corn acres are expected to be pulled from cotton, which is penciling out as less profitable than the other principal crop acres. Total cotton acreage is predicted to fall to 10 million.

All wheat acreage will likely be impacted the least, with market expectations pointing toward a slight increase to 46.7 million acres.

The USDA’s acreage forecasts released this week are not based on any survey data. Instead, they use modeling forecasts before surveying farmers for the Prospective Plantings report released at the end of March. 

Additionally, the USDA will provide a forecast for 2025/26 ending stocks for the crops. The table below shows the trade expects next year’s corn carryout to increase and soybeans to decrease. 

Slightly higher wheat acreage is expected to pull the ending stocks estimate higher as well.