USDA To Include Tariffs In April WASDE

Amid all the tariff chaos, the USDA will release its April WASDE report on Thursday.

This week, the USDA said it’s “ready to address [tariffs] if anything changes before the WASDE comes out. And, if the tariffs are in place, we’ll incorporate them appropriately.” That means the agency could likely include tariff impacts in tomorrow’s report numbers after the U.S. officially implemented reciprocal tariffs Wednesday morning. 

However, the impact may not be fully realized until the May report if the duties remain in place. 

Ahead of Thursday’s data drop, a Bloomberg survey of analyst estimates predicts the 2024/25 corn carryout to be 28 million bushels lower than the March forecast at 1.512 billion. Analysts continued to sound of the need for the agency to raise corn exports due to the current pace sitting about five percentage points ahead of the current target. 

Soybean ending stocks are expected to increase slightly to 382 million bushels. The most obvious adjustment needed is for soybean oil exports. Total commitments are running above 2 billion pounds, compared to the 1.89 billion the USDA currently forecasts. 

Wheat ending stocks are expected to be 7 million bushels higher at 826 million.

World corn ending stocks are expected to be lowered to 288.3 MMT, down 0.7 MMT from March. Soybean ending stocks are expected to rise 0.5 MMT to 121.9 MMT. The global wheat carryout is expected to have a slight increase of 0.3 MMT to 260.4 MMT.

Marginal changes are expected for the South American production forecasts. The largest change could come for Argentina’s corn crop, according to the Bloomberg survey. 

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