September 2025 WASDE Analysis

The 2025 September WASDE results are in. This month, the USDA trimmed corn yields but still raised production due to increased acreage. Soybean ending stocks were raised, and wheat ending stocks were lowered.

The average corn yield forecast lowered to 186.7 bushels per acre (bpa). However, harvested acreage was raised to 90 million acres, up 1.3 million from the August forecast. Total production was increased to a new record of 16.81 billion bushels. Exports for the 2025/26 season were raised by 100 million bushels to 2.975 billion while exports for 2024/25 were raised by 10 million bushels to 2.83 billion. Global corn ending stocks were lowered to 281.4 million metric tons (MMT), down 1.1 MMT.

Forecasted soybean acreage increased to 80.3 million acres, up 200,000 from the previous estimate while the national average yield was lowered by a tenth of a bushel to 53.5 bpa. Rather than the expected decrease, total production raised slightly to 4.3 billion bushels. Soybean exports for 2025/26 decreased to 1.685 billion bushels due to increased export competition, but stronger soybean meal exports led to soybean crush rising by 15 million bushels. Global soybean ending stocks were lowered to 124 MMT, down 900,000 MMT.
 

The USDA left the 2025/26 wheat production forecast unchanged from August at 1.927 billion bushels. Exports for 2025/26 were raised by 25 million bushels to 900 million, lowering U.S. ending stocks below expectations to 844 million bushels. Global ending stocks increased to 264.1 MMT, up 4 MMT from the previous report.

The production estimate was raised slightly to 13.22 million bales due to marginally higher harvested acreage offsetting a slight yield reduction. The U.S. ending stocks estimate remained at 3.6 million bales while the global ending stocks estimate decreased 800,000 bales to 73.1 million bales. While initially projected higher than last year in the August report, global ending stocks are expected to be the lowest in four years.

Rice ending stocks for 2025/26 were raised to 53.4 million hundredweight (cwt), up 8.8 million from the August report. Domestic supplies were raised on higher beginning stocks, lower exports, and reduced domestic use. Global ending stocks were raised from last month due to an increase in supplies for the U.S. and Pakistan.

Milk production for 2025 was raised from August to 230 billion pounds. The increase was driven by higher cow inventories and faster growth in milking productivity. Output for 2026 was raised to a record 231.3 billion pounds, as higher cow inventories and output per cow are expected to carry over into next year. 

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