Focus is on South American Production in February WASDE

The USDA will release its February WASDE report on Tuesday. The broad focus will be on South American crops and minor adjustments to U.S. demand. 

CORN

Ahead of the report, a Bloomberg survey of analyst estimates predicts the 2024/25 corn carryout to be lowered by 13 million bushels at 1.527 billion. 

Exports are expected to be about 9 million bushels higher, which is likely given the strong pace of sales recently. However, the USDA lowered the U.S. crop forecast last month and, in turn, reduced the export forecast. It will be interesting to see if the agency will be quick to raise demand, given the tighter stocks-to-use ratio. 

Minor adjustments are expected for Brazil’s corn production, with the trade average expecting a slight decline. It’s likely the estimate will remain close to 127 million metric tons (MMT) if the agency does not expect problems for the Safrinha crop, which is currently experiencing harvest delays.

Argentina’s corn crop estimate is expected to be 1.3 MMT lower at 49.7 MMT. Global corn production is expected to be down 0.5 MMT from January at 292.8 MMT.

SOYBEANS

Minor changes are expected for the U.S. soybean balance sheet, with ending stocks predicted 3 million bushels lower at 378 million. Exports will likely remain unchanged at 1.827 billion bushels.

Traders expect a slight increase in Brazil’s soybean production forecast, with a 1 MMT increase to 169.9 MMT. Soybean harvest is moving along slower than normal due to a slow start to the planting season and persistent rainfall in Mato Grosso.

Argentina’s corn production is expected to be lowered by 1.3 MMT to 49.7 MMT. World soybean production is expected to fall about 0.4 MMT to 128 MMT.

WHEAT

Not much change is expected for the wheat balance sheet. The 2024/25 carryout forecast is expected at 799 million bushels, down 1 million from the January estimate.

World ending stocks are expected to remain unchanged from January at 258.8 MMT.

February WASDE pre-report survey estimates for the U.S. 2024/25 carryout numbers.

Pre-report survey estimates for South American corn and soybean production.